April 21, 2026
The folly of predicting one person. The power of predicting a million

Behavioural data can't tell you what one person will do next Tuesday. But at scale, it reveals something far more useful – the conditions that make risky decisions more or less likely across entire populations. Oz Alashe explores why predicting the individual is the wrong question, and what actuaries, epidemiologists, and weather forecasters figured out long ago.